Percentage-pacing model vs a pace-based projection, scored against actual aid station arrivals.
Data…Updated—Next refresh—Legs scored—
—
Each method predicts arrival at the next station from the runner's time at the prior one. Your method scales by the
pacing profile, RunSignup by course mileage (holding pace constant). Median, Mean, SD are of the
error magnitude in minutes; Bias is the mean signed error (negative = predicts early). Drag the slider to see the
numbers as they stood at any point in the race.